Ryan's Place

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Market Predicts the NFL II

It seems like I am seeing more forecasts these days than I can count. While there’s nothing wrong with that, I decided to make my own unique forecast. This has nothing to do with football knowledge or win/loss records. I decided to find the closest ticker symbol for each team and am using the annual yield (current as of when I wrote this) to determine who will win the Super Bowl. This is all in fun and fictional for the most part. I will tell you what I think occasionally (oh no!), but I want this to be more of a fun forecast of how the NFL season will play out. I hope you enjoy my version of Market NFL II.

The AFC

AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins: Symbol – MIAIX (MFS Inflation Adjusted Bond Fund); Yield – 4.59%
2. Buffalo Bills: Symbol – BUFHX (Buffalo High Yield Fund); Yield – 3.95%
3. New York Jets: Symbol – JNYIX (JP Morgan NY Tax Free Bond Inst); Yield – 3.38%
4. New England Patriots: Symbol – PATMX (Pioneer Research Fund Class A); Yield – 0.81%

A total flip-flop from last year. Nick Saban will have Coach of the Year consideration for this turnaround, while Pats fans wait for the baseball season to roll around. I could see the Bills taking second (or even first) thanks to their defense and Willis McGahee.

AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Symbol – CIN (Cinergy Corp); Yield – 4.32%
2. Cleveland Browns: Symbol – CLE (Claire's Stores Inc); Yield – 1.56%
3. Baltimore Ravens: Symbol – BA (Boeing); Yield – 1.41%
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: Symbol – PITSX (Principal Investors FD Intern); Yield – 0.88%

It looks like the NFL will be much different this year. The Steelers, who owned the best record last year (and won the Super Bowl in Market NFL I) drop to last place in the division. Not only do the Bengals win the division, but the Browns take second! Good Ol’ Romeo takes care of business without “Butch’s 1st Round Busts” or “The Chosen One”.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts: Symbol – IND (ING GROEP PERP DEBT); Yield – 6.76%
2. Houston Texans: Symbol – NTX (Nuveen TX Quality FD); Yield – 6.60%
3. Tennessee Titans: Symbol – TENAX (Touchstone Large Cap Core Equity); Yield – 1.11%
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Symbol – JAGIX (Janus Growth & Income); Yield - .53%

Surprise, surprise! Finally, a team that finished first in their division last year does it again! It looks like this will finally be the year for Texans fans as Houston is gearing up for the Wild Card race. Sorry Tennessee and Jacksonville….there’s always next year.

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Symbol – KCC (STR PD 8.2 PROV TR 1); Yield – 8.14%
2. San Diego Chargers: Symbol – SDCSX (Scudder CA Tax Free Inc); Yield – 4.67%
3. Oakland Raiders: Symbol – OAKF (Oak Hill Financial Inc); Yield – 2.32%
4. Denver Broncos: Symbol – DENVX (MassMutual Premier Enhanced IND); Yield – 1.58%

The Chiefs are back after a dismal outing last year. With their High Powered Offense and improved D, who wouldn’t figure the Chiefs would be back? Randy Moss and Co. help the Raiders out of the basement while Jake snakes his way (bad pun intended) into the bottom of the AFC West. It looks like the Chargers will be in the Wild Card race after surprising everyone last year.

Division Winners
Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs

Wild Cards
Houston Texans
San Diego Chargers
AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs over Indianapolis Colts

The Wild Card race was very close with the Chargers edging out the Bills for the final spot. However, the Chiefs steal the show! Not only do they make a huge comeback and clinch the division crown, but they keep going until they reach the Super Bowl. Whether Kansas City can take the NFL Championship is a different story. Let’s see how the NFC plays out before Chiefs fans get too excited.

The NFC

NFC East
1. New York Giants: Symbol – GNYMX (General NY Municipal Bond); Yield – 3.94%
2. Washington Redskins: Symbol – WASH (Washington Trust Bankcorp Inc); Yield – 2.53%
3. Dallas Cowboys: Symbol – CB (Chubb Corp); Yield – 2.39%
4. Philadelphia Eagles: Symbol – PHI (Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co); Yield – 2.21%

Here we go again in the “First to Worst” category. Eli Manning steps it up in his second year to lift the Giants to a Division Title. Washington, Dallas, and Philly are all very close together, but Gibbs finds a way to edge his rivals out for second place.

NFC North
1. Detroit Lions: Symbol – DETIX (Delaware Delchester Instl); Yield – 8.29%
2. Chicago Bears: Symbol – CHICX (Credit Suisse High Income C); Yield – 7.82%
3. Minnesota Vikings: Symbol – MIN (MFS Intermediate Income Trust); Yield – 6.05%
4. Green Bay Packers: Symbol – GBP (Gables Residential Trust); Yield – 5.56%

WOW!!! This is by far the best division in the NFL. Any one of these teams would be in division contention if they weren’t in the North. The Lions unseat the Bears as last year’s Market NFL NFC North Champs, while the Packers sit on the bottom of this powerhouse division.

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers: Symbol – CARS (Capital Automotive REIT); Yield – 4.45%
2. New Orleans Saints: Symbol – SAINX (STI Classic Strategic Income A); Yield – 4.20%
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Symbol – BUCCX (AllianceBernstein Muni Inc Ins CA); Yield – 3.45%
4. Atlanta Falcons: Symbol – ATLVX (ABM AMRO/TAMRO Large Cap); Yield – 0.69%

The Panthers are back on top after a disappointing 2004 season. The Falcons follow just about every other 2004 division winner by ending up last. Team trip to Mexico!!
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers: Symbol – SFF (Santa Fe Energy Trust); Yield – 9.08%
2. St. Louis Rams: Symbol – STL (Sterling Bancorp); Yield – 3.91%
3. Seattle Seahawks: Symbol – SEH (Spartech Corp); Yield – 2.47%
4. Arizona Cardinals: Symbol – AZ (Allianz Aktiengesell); Yield – 1.93%

The bottom feeder goes to 1st place in one year….what else is new. The Seahawks have a better attitude this year, but it looks like the results won’t be shown until a year or two down the line. The Rams finish in seconds again. Guess What??? The Cardinals were all hype! What a surprise. By the way, Mike Nolan officially whoops Nick Saban for Coach of the Year.
Division Winners
New York Giants
Detriot Lions
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
The AFC looked halfway realistic with some of 2004’s playoff teams entering making it. The NFC, however, is never normal. The only team welcomed back to the playoffs is the Vikings.
NFC Championship Game
San Francisco 49ers over Detroit Lions
Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers over Kansas City Chiefs in a game that comes down to the wire

Super Bowl MVP
Mike Singletary, who made a game saving tackle after the Napkin Bandit (Ray Rhodes)sabotaged his playbook.

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