Ryan's Place

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Market Predicts the NFL? (2004)

I wrote this for Seahawks.net....It was also posted on Yahoo Sports.

It seems like I am seeing more forecasts these days than I can count. While there’s nothing wrong with that, I decided to make my own unique forecast. I was just lying in bed the other night and an idea popped in my head. This has nothing to do with football knowledge or win/loss records. I decided to find the closest ticker symbol for each team and am using the annual yield (current as of when I wrote the article) to determine who will win the Super Bowl. This is all in fun and fictional for the most part. I will tell you what I think occasionally (oh no!), but I want this to be more of a fun forecast of how the NFL season will play out. I hope you enjoy my version of Market NFL.

AFC East
1. New England Patriots: Symbol – PATS.NS (Patspin India Ltd); Yield – 5.79%
2. Buffalo Bills: Symbol – BUFBX (Buffalo Balanced); Yield – 3.12%
3. New York Jets: Symbol – JETS.KL (Kumpulan Jetson Bhd); Yield – 2%
4. Miami Dolphins: Symbol – MIAEX (Mercantile International Equity A); Yield - .31%

This one looks like it could actually happen. Nothing really new here: The Pats are on top and it sucks to be a Dolphins fan (this year at least). The Bills are right where I would have them anyways. I personally think the Bills will make the playoffs this year. Watch out New England!

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Symbol – PIT.L (Pilkington's Tiles Group PLC); Yield – 14.54%
2. Cincinnati Bengals: Symbol – CIN (Cinergy Corp); Yield – 4.70%
3. Baltimore Ravens: Symbol – BA.L (BAE Systems PLC); Yield – 4.38%
4. Cleveland Browns: Symbol – CLE (Claire's Stores Inc); Yield – 1.21%

The Steelers completely dominate this one! They look to be contenders late in January. The Bengals & Ravens look to have a tight race (which just might happen this year). However, the Browns are still stuck at the bottom. Don’t worry Cleveland, your stock may be rising (pun intended).

AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans: Symbol – TEN.AX (Ten Network Holdings Ltd); Yield – 7.03%
2. Indianapolis Colts: Symbol – IND (ING GROEP NV); Yield – 6.70%
3. Houston Texans: Symbol – TXN (Texas Instruments Inc); Yield - .43%
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Symbol – JAGIX (Janus Growth & Income); Yield - .32%

Although I like the Colts over the Titans this year, I can definitely see this one happening. Look at the drop off from the top two to the bottom two teams. This seems pretty realistic to me as well. While I like the Texans & Jags (and have high hopes for them), they are nowhere near the Colts & Titans yet.

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Symbol – KCTX.BO (K C TEXTILES-Z); Yield – 7.90%
2. Oakland Raiders: Symbol – OAKF; Yield – 1.82%
3. San Diego Chargers: Symbol – SDCDX (SEI Asset Alloc Divr Conserv Income D); Yield – 1.18%
4. Denver Broncos: Symbol – BRO (Brown & Brown Inc); Yield - .65%

So much for the Broncos taking first place in the West. The Chiefs are strong again this year with a solid 7.90%. They should be players come late January. The Raiders bounce back after an embarrassing 2003 outing and take second place in the division. However I don’t think it will be enough when the playoffs roll around.

Division Winners
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Kansas City Chiefs

Wild Cards
Indianapolis Colts
Cincinnati Bengals

The Pats, Titans, Chiefs, and Colts were all in the playoffs last year, so that’s not a huge surprise, but the Bengals and Steelers put on solid performances to earn their spots. Now let’s see who’s going to the big dance.

AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC got a little weird, but actually came out quite normal considering. So without further delay, here’s my continuation of Market NFL.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles: Symbol – PHI_pa (Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co); Yield – 8.56%
2. New York Giants: Symbol – NY (iShares Trust); Yield – 1.36%
3. Washington Redskins: Symbol – WASAX (Ivy Asset Strategy A); Yield – 1.23%
4. Dallas Cowboys: Symbol – DAL.MI (Datalogic SpA); Yield – 1.03%

There’s a huge drop off from the Eagles to the 2nd place team. Speaking of the 2nd place team: RON DAYNE! Yeah, I have been rooting for him (my Badger roots are showing), and hopefully he can finally come through for NY.

NFC North
1. Chicago Bears: Symbol – CHI (Calamos Convertible Opportunities and Income Fund); Yield – 9.17%
2. Green Bay Packers: Symbol – GBP (Gables Residential Trust); Yield – 7.60%
3. Minnesota Vikings: Symbol – MIN (MFS Intermediate Income Trust); Yield – 5.47%
4. Detroit Lions: Symbol – DET.L (Deltron Electronics PLC); Yield – 2.63%

This is a very good division. Bears fans finally have something to cheer about! The Lions would’ve been in 2nd place in any of the other NFC divisions. The Packers and Vikings will both have a chance for playoffs due to everyone else pretty much stinking it up in the conference.

NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers: Symbol – CAR.L (Carclo PLC); Yield – 2.76%
2. New Orleans Saints: Symbol – SAIN.PA (Sasa Industrie); Yield – 2.38%
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Symbol – BUC.S (Bucher Industries AG); Yield – 2.28%
4. Atlanta Falcons: Symbol – ATL.L (Atlantic Global PLC); Yield – 1.87%

Hey, both Championship teams from last year are division winners. This thing is working all right. The race between the Saints and Bucs is a close one, but the Saints just edged them out by one tenth.

NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams: Symbol – STL (Sterling Bancorp); Yield – 2.86%
2. Arizona Cardinals: Symbol – AZ (ALLIANZ AKTIENG); Yield – 1.86%
Seattle Seahawks: Symbol – SHW (Sherwin-Williams Co); Yield – 1.70%
4. San Francisco 49ers: Symbol – SF.BK (Siam Future Development PCL); Yield – 1.36%

It was a tight race for the bottom of the NFC West, but the 49ers won. The Cardinals surprised with 2nd place in the division, while the Seahawks disappointed with a poor at best 1.70%.

Division Winners
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams

Wild Cards
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

Just like the AFC, four of these teams made the playoffs last year and one of them missed it by a last minute TD. The Bears are the huge shocker in this one, and they will not disappoint when given a chance to make it to the big show.

NFC Championship Game
Chicago Bears over Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers over Chicago Bears

It’s a BLOWOUT! The Steelers have the Bears whooped by over 5%.

Super Bowl MVP
Hines Ward OF COURSE!


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